Colombia's Presidential Election: Fear of Returning to Past Violence | AP News Analysis (2026)

Colombia's upcoming presidential election is a pivotal moment, with the nation's violent past looming large over the present. The scars of a six-decade-long armed conflict are still raw, and the fear of a return to those dark days is palpable.

For two individuals, Blanca Nubia Monroy and Sigifredo López, the election represents a choice between two starkly different paths: peace or a harsh crackdown on crime. Monroy, with her tattooed scale of justice, is a symbol of the trauma inflicted by the military, while López, a survivor of guerrilla captivity, represents the enduring fear of political violence.

The Polarized Electorate

Colombia's electorate is deeply divided, with voters choosing between Iván Cepeda, a peace activist, and Abelardo de la Espriella, endorsed by Trump and promising a war on crime. The armed struggle has left over 10 million Colombians as victims, and the trauma runs deep.

Elizabeth Dickinson, an expert on Latin America, highlights the dangerous polarization within Colombian society. She warns that the spark of violence could ignite at any moment, given the country's history.

The Candidates' Visions

Cepeda, aligned with President Gustavo Petro, advocates for "total peace" through negotiations with criminal groups. However, this strategy has faced criticism as armed groups have exploited ceasefires to strengthen their positions.

In contrast, de la Espriella promises an aggressive offensive on crime, reminiscent of El Salvador's Nayib Bukele. While Bukele's approach has reduced homicide rates, it has also raised concerns about human rights abuses.

Personal Stories, Personal Fears

Monroy's story is a tragic reminder of the civilian toll during military offensives. Her son, Julián, disappeared and was later identified by his tattoo, becoming one of the victims of the "false positives" scandal. She fears a return to such tactics under de la Espriella's leadership.

López, on the other hand, fears a continuation of the current path. He survived seven years of captivity by FARC guerrillas and now lives with state-appointed security due to threats. He believes de la Espriella's focus on restoring safety is crucial.

The Impact of Violence

Under Petro's presidency, violence has escalated, with armed groups using drones and bombings. The International Red Cross has reported the worst impact on civilians in a decade. The largest guerrilla group, ELN, has declared a temporary ceasefire, but other criminal groups remain active.

Both Monroy and López worry about the future. Monroy fears a sharp turn to the right, while López fears the consequences of continuing down the current path. Their stories highlight the complex dynamics of a nation seeking peace amidst a legacy of violence.

Conclusion

Colombia's election is a battle between two visions: peace through negotiation or a forceful crackdown on crime. The personal stories of Monroy and López serve as a stark reminder of the human cost of violence and the urgent need for a sustainable path to peace. The outcome of this election will shape the future of a nation still healing from its violent past.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Fear of Returning to Past Violence | AP News Analysis (2026)
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